Arkansas Department of Emergency Management statement regarding Hurricane Isaac

Tuesday, August 28, 10:25 a.m.

The future track of Isaac has changed little since yesterday.  The latest information from the National Hurricane Center still brings Isaac into south central Arkansas, then through the central and north central parts of the state, then off toward St. Louis.  This could still change somewhat, but the "cone of uncertainty" has narrowed since yesterday and extends from extreme eastern Oklahoma across Arkansas into part of West Tennessee.  Thus, although the track may shift somewhat to the east or west, Arkansas is squarely in the middle of the projected path.

As I noted yesterday, the heaviest rains and the chances for tornadoes normally occur to the right of where a tropical system tracks.  Since Isaac is forecast to be moving from south to north across Arkansas, that will place the (roughly) eastern half of the state in the area of maximum rainfall and the threat of tornadoes.  Tornadoes associated with tropical systems usually occur during the afternoon and evening hours; late-night tornadoes are not common.

The major effects on Arkansas will be mainly on Thursday and Friday. However, effects will be felt in southeast Arkansas beginning Wednesday night, and there will still be some effects on Saturday as Isaac moves away.  All this assumes that Isaac will move at its currently-projected speed.

I have attached a graphic from the NWS' Hydrometeorological Prediction Center showing their thoughts on possible rainfall amounts with Isaac.  *Do not take this to be exact.*  Rather, take it as general information.  Typically, the largest rain amounts from a tropical system will be larger than what is shown on the graphic, and there could easily be some totals exceeding 6 inches.  Please take note of the very sharp dividing line between who gets a lot of rain (eastern Arkansas) and who gets much less (western edge of the state).

The latest graphics from the National Hurricane Center indicate that the southeast corner of Arkansas has a 30-40% chance of sustained tropical-force winds (39 mph or greater).  Most of Arkansas, however, should see winds in the 20-30 mph range, with some gusts to 40 mph or so.  Northwest Arkansas will probably see the least wind from Isaac.