Weather alert for this week

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR

500 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

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500 AM CDT MON APR 8 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER THIS MORNING...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPRINKLES.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING TUESDAY...WITH WARMING ALOFT AND A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. THIS WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE... WHICH WILL DISCOURAGE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARD ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

THE LATEST DATA SHOWS STORMS HAVING DIFFICULTY FORMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH STRONG CAPPING REMAINING IN PLACE. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND WILL PROVIDE LIMITED FORCING TO BREAK THE CAP.

GIVEN THE EVIDENCE...MOST PRECIPITATION DURING THIS EVENT SHOULD BE POST-FRONTAL...OR IN COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL LIMIT SEVERE STORMS...WITH A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AS THE LINE ACCELERATES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...SOME AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS.

THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY. IF THE CAP HAPPENS TO WEAKEN...ANY PRE-FRONTAL STORMS WOULD BE IN A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE STORMS WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...THERE WILL BE AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE TWICE AS MUCH AS NORMAL...AND THIS WILL MAKE STORMS MORE EFFICIENT RAINMAKERS. WIDESPREAD ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY MORE THAN FOUR INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE.

BECAUSE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THIS EVENT WILL UNFOLD...ARKANSANS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS ADDITIONAL DATA IS RECEIVED.